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Aging in California - Projected Population Age 60 and Over

Elderly:

Oldest Old:

The elderly population (age 60 and over) in California has grown rapidly throughout this century. Between 1950 and 1990, the elderly population grew from 1.6 million to 4.2 million, an increase of 157 percent. This trend will continue, as the elderly population is expected to reach 12.5 million by 2040, an increase of 232 percent from 1990. The highest growth rates will occur in the next 30 years, largely due to the aging of the Baby Boomers (persons born between 1946 and 1964). The first wave of Baby Boomers will turn 60 during the period between 2000 and 2010, resulting in a 32 percent increase, and will increase another 38 percent by 2020. Beginning in 2010, 1 in 5 Californians will be 60 years of age or older.

Within populations, different age groups may increase in numbers at very different rates. Over time, the elderly population itself has become "older" and will continue to do so. In 1990 the oldest old age group (age 85 years and over) comprised 7 percent of the elderly population, compared to only 2.6 percent in 1950. By 2000 this will climb to 9 percent. Between 2030 and 2040, when the first of the Baby Boom generation reaches age 85, the percent of elderly who are in the oldest age group will reach 14 percent.

The rapid increase in the oldest old population is perhaps best seen when their growth is compared to that of the total population. While the total population will approximately double in size between 1990 and 2040, the oldest old will experience nearly a 6-fold increase, growing from just under 300,000 to over 1.7 million persons. As a result, whereas only 1 in 99 persons in 1990 were in the oldest old age group, 1 in 34 persons will be in this age group by 2040. Because the oldest old often have severe chronic health problems which demand special attention, the rapid growth of this population group has many implications for individuals, families, and governments.